基于朴素贝叶斯算法的洲际导弹发射成败预测分析

A Forecasting Analysis of the Success or Failure of Intercontinental Missile Launch Based on the Naive Bayesian Algorithm
Abstract: No forecasting no  decision. The purpose of forecast  is to deduce the further
description for a given data derived from historical data so as to forecast the future. The dada of
this research is collected in the military practice the author participated. According to the related
parameters in the sample, the author uses the Naive Bayesian algorithm for quantitative analysis
and calculation, and then forms  a clear conclusion about decision-making subject.  The main
content of this thesis is to design a model based on Naive Bayesian algorithm. By missile data
analogue simulation in certain Military Base, the author summarizes and analyzes the factors
related to the success of the missile launch, so as to forecast whether the next missile will be
success or not. The formation of conclusion has great reference significance to the  forcast and   源￥自%六^^维*论-文+网=www.lwfree.cn
judgment of the success or failure of important projects.
Keywords: Naive Bayes; Intercontinental Missile;The Success or Failure; Forecast

（一）研究的目的与意义.. 1
（二）研究的背景.. 1
（三）研究过程 3
1、设计过程. 3
2、总体思路. 4

（一）总述.. 5
（二）相关研究成果. 5
（三）总结.. 7

（一） 研究方法  .. 8
1、基于贝叶斯算法的推理. 8
2、分类的过程 8
（二）研究设计 8
1、朴素贝叶斯分类算法.. 8
2、贝叶斯公式 9

（一）朴素贝叶斯分类器模型的设计. 10
1、朴素贝叶斯分类.. 10
2、朴素贝叶斯特点.. 12
（二）从概率模型中构造分类器 12
（三）导弹数据的处理. 12
1.成败分类.. 12
2.数据模型.. 12
（四）本章小结. 16

（一）结论与建议 17
1、结论. 17
2、建议. 17
（二）后续工作展望.. 17

（一）研究的目的与意义

------分隔线----------------------------