## 基于点估计法的考虑风速相关性的概率潮流计算

Title  Based on the point estimate method considering the wind
speed correlation probabilistic power flow calculation
Abstract
In the process of power system operation, often there are many uncertainty factors, such as power output random changes, equipment failure, environmental impact, etc. At this point, the traditional power flow calculation is difficult to meet the actual situation of complex and changeable, as a result, in power system operation and planning need to use when considering the uncertainty of the operation of the system of the probabilistic power flow calculation. There are many methods of probabilistic power flow calculation, such as the monte carlo method, convolution method and point estimate method, the point estimation method have good calculation superiority.

This paper puts forward a model considering the probability of wind speed correlation trend, it is especially suitable for evaluation of intermittent generators such as wind power impact on electric power network, probabilistic power flow calculation can be effectively considering all kinds of random factors, comprehensive analysis system running status, and on the analysis of wind power grid in the influence of system operation has been widely used. In this paper, the Probability trend model using the IEEE-RTS 9-bus system and 24-bus system for validation.
Keywords  Stochastic Load Flow  Point estimate method  Uncertain factors The wind speed correlation

1  绪论1
1.1  课题研究背景 1
1.2  课题研究意义 1
1.3  课题研究现状 2
1.4  本文主要工作 4
2  点估计法相关数学基础5
2.1  期望值和方差5
2.2  原点矩和中心矩 6
2.3  标准正态分布及其概率密度函数 7
2.4  Gram-Charlier 级数展开7
2.5  本章小结 9
3  点估计方法理论及牛顿拉夫逊法理论10
3.1  集中度概念10
3.2  输入变量相关性处理方法12
3.3  牛顿拉夫逊法简介15
3.4  本章小结18
4  基于点估计法的考虑风速相关性的概率潮流计算19
4.1  风力发电机随机模型19
4.2  基于点估计法的考虑风速相关性的概率潮流计算具体步骤21
4.3  本章小结23
5  算例分析24
5.1  IEEE-9节点系统 24
5.2  IEEE-24节点系统26
5.3  风速相关性对系统潮流的影响31
5.4  本章小结36

1  绪论
1.1  课题研究背景 基于点估计法的考虑风速相关性的概率潮流计算:http://www.lwfree.cn/zidonghua/20190305/30811.html
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