## 风电场风速和发电功率预测研究

Abstract
In recent years, with the rapid development of new energy in the world, the Proportion of Wind Power in Power grid is larger and larger in every country. However, the intermittence and randomicity of the wind make it harder to ensure the safety and the qualification of the Power grid. Therefore, it has the extremely vital significance for the development of Wind Power to predict the wind speed accurately .It not only can improve the market competitiveness of wind power but also can  provide reference data for the electric power sector. 源`自<六:维*论-文>网/www.lwfree.cn
This paper introduces the developing situation of the wind power prediction and establishes the prediction model by using Time Series method. Then making the prediction model by Autoregressive Intergrated Moving Average(ARIMA) and Spring Autoregressive Intergrated Moving Average(SARIMA) respectively after making a simple introduction to the method and basic principle of Time Series. This paper makes prediction models for a group of the actual wind speed and wind power sequences . firstly , dealing with specific data sequence, then determining the model and the order number, lastly predicting 24 hours dates after determining the specific model. Comparing forecast results of both models, in the wind speed prediction example, ARIMA model to predict the average relative error is 9.94%, SARIMA model to predict the average relative error is 8.55%, and in wind power prediction, ARIMA model and SARIMA model to predict the average relative error of 74.8% and 17.3% respectively.
Through the analysis of specific cases, it can be seen that on the predictions of a short-term wind speed and wind power, SARIMA model is better than the ARIMA model .
Key word：Wind power generation     Wind Speed     Wind Power                Time Series    Prediction Models

Abstract    II
1绪论    1
1.1课题研究背景及意义    1
1.2风力发电的发展现状    2
1.2.1世界风力发电发展现状    2
1.2.2国内风力发电发展现状    4
1.3风电功率预测研究发展现状    5
1.4本论文的主要工作    6
2时间序列研究方法    7 源`自<六:维*论-文>网/www.lwfree.cn
2.1时间序列模型概述    7
2.2平稳时间序列模型    7 风电场风速和发电功率预测研究:http://www.lwfree.cn/zidonghua/20191011/40575.html
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